Moustapha ALADJI

French Guiana's diverse population is the result of successive waves of migration. It is essentially made up of Amerindians, Creoles, brown blacks, Asians and Metropolitans at the beginning of the 1960s.^[1]. It then diversified with the arrival of immigrants from Brazil, Haiti, Guyana, Suriname and Saint Lucia. Until the 1980s, the major waves of immigration to French Guiana reflected the political instability in neighbouring countries: political unrest in Haiti, civil war in Suriname, social and economic problems in Guyana.

Today, this territory remains an island of wealth in the heart of South America, and many immigrants come here for economic or family reasons. What's more, we mustn't forget the permeability of the borders that have made French Guyana a land of migration: two border rivers, the forest to the south and the sea to the north. The number of immigrants in the Guianese population was stable in 1990. Thereafter, between 1990 and 1999, there was a decrease. According to INSEE, in 2020, immigrants will represent 30 % of the population of French Guiana. This is the highest rate in the region, ahead of Île-de-France (17.6 %) and Alsace (10.3 %). While the origin of the immigrant population has changed over time, its profile has also evolved: there are now more women than men.

In addition to migration to the area, a large proportion of the population is also affected by job insecurity. It mainly concerns working people in insecure jobs, whether immigrants or non-immigrants. According to the report on the study carried out jointly by the Institut National de la Statistique des Études Économiques (INSEE) and the Direction de l'Environnement et de l'Aménagement du Logement en Guyane (DEAL) in 2014 on housing, 15 % to 20 % of the Guyanese population currently has no access to basic infrastructure (drinking water, electricity, telephone, housing, etc.); 30 % of Guyanese households in the coastal strip live in overcrowded conditions, compared with 9 % in mainland France.

Immigration, which is all too often forgotten, not only generates negative repercussions, but is not completely detached from political will. History has taught us that Guiana was built in part by immigration, a driving force behind the development of this territory, whatever its origin, whether it was voluntary or forced. Today in French Guiana, a large proportion of immigrants play an active role in the country's economic life and development.

The aim of this thesis is to demonstrate, from an economic, social and cultural point of view, the most likely and objective view of the impact of immigration on the Guyanese economy.

As a result, a number of questions have emerged that will guide this research project. Our initial question was to try to understand : If immigration promotes development, what are the factors that explain immigration to French Guyana? And finally, is there a link between immigration and unemployment?

To answer the questions posed, this thesis will be structured around two main parts, the first of which is entitled Migration and the Development Context. In this part, we have two chapters, the first of which deals with the context of the regionalisation of development and migration and the second with the theories and models of migration.

The second part, migration and imbalance, comprises two chapters, of which chapter 3 deals with the study of explanatory factors using a probit model, and the final chapter deals with the labour market, unemployment and employment in French Guyana.

The aim of this thesis is not to index immigration but to highlight the various issues surrounding immigration from an economic, environmental, health, social and societal point of view, in order to make recommendations for improving the migration policies already in place.

The choice of subject was born of a desire to establish a true observation of the real situation in this territory, and to qualify the words of those who might consider immigrants or immigration to be a burden, while forgetting that this population represents a significant proportion of the Guyanese population. They contribute to a large part of the Guyanese economy through their consumption and business start-ups.

The theoretical and empirical results of our research

To answer our first question, in the first part we presented an overview of the migration situation in the world, focusing on the share of international migrants, which is estimated at 272 million in 2019, or 3.5% of the world population. These international migrants play an active role in the economic development of their host countries.

We also gave a historical overview of the periods of migratory waves in Europe, and more specifically in France, with the different policies adopted by the State after the Second World War. In connection with the context of our subject, we presented the history of the settlement of French Guiana through French migration policy. These findings show that, today, French Guiana is characterised by great diversity and constant mobility of border communities. Its population is made up of several groups, and for a long time a land of immigration, Creoles, Businenges, Amerindians, Hmong, Africans, as well as metropolitan French and other more recent immigrant communities coexist in the territory through the various waves of migration.

We have also discussed the notion of development in relation to immigration, bearing in mind that development theories are based on principles that are in fact part of economic theory. We have already mentioned a few of them: there is the constant flow of trade that encourages accumulation, which is a factor in production and growth.

These are all basic principles on which economic and development theories are based. For example, for a long time, the principles of economics developed by the first theorists of classical economics, Adam Smith (1723-1790), David Ricardo (1772-1823) and Jean-Baptiste Say (1767-1832), served as the basis for theories of economic development and development, because at that time development would be equated with economic development.

Standard theory explains the existence of social cleavages concerning the determination of immigration policy by the transfer of income between national groups generated by the admission of immigrants. The arrival of foreigners with factors of production modifies the relative factor endowment of the host economy and, consequently, the income that nationals derive from their participation in productive activity.

The Council of Europe's report on migration, published in 2019, contradicts all preconceived ideas that migrants threaten the employment and social security systems in the countries where they settle. The report states that migrants make a decisive contribution to the economic and cultural wealth of the countries that receive them.

For several years in France, the issues of immigration and integration have been presented as major problems, systematically put at the centre of public debate by the extreme right, without any verification of the social and cultural disasters predicted.

France as a whole is the oldest host country for immigrants, which means that immigration is neither a problem nor a cost.

Economic and demographic studies show that a more ambitious immigration policy would have a positive impact on public finances. It should not be forgotten that immigrants contribute to the creation of wealth in host countries. Their contribution to development is determined by many factors, including the nature of the migration, where it is destined and how successful or unsuccessful the countries concerned are in taking advantage of the phenomenon and tackling its negative effects.

We can state that immigration promotes development, provided it is well managed and supported, and generates benefits for both host countries and countries of origin. An example of successful immigration is the case of the Hmong in French Guiana, who are now contributing to the development of the region through their agriculture.

We then review the literature on the various theories of migration, from the classical and neoclassical perspectives.

The classical school developed its theory on the assumption of a status quo proportional to the factors of production, whether labour or capital. However, the issue of migration is incorporated into classical theory in that Smith echoes that "man is of all baggage, the most difficult to move" and Mill shows that immigration can raise the standard of living of part of the population of the host country. While the neoclassicals claim that the theoretical model of the will to migrate was discovered in the economists Adam Smith (1776) and Friedrich Ratzel (1882), there are also the "laws" of the geographer Ernst Georg Ravenstein (1885), which are often regarded as the first explicit attempt to theorise the causes of migration on the basis of the observation of internal migration. He established a theory of human migration in the 1880s that still forms the basis of modern migration theory.

These economic theories of migration demonstrate the impact that impact brings. These elements of response that we have mentioned take us back to the second issue on the factors of immigration in French Guyana.

The arrival of a population in a territory brings a potential source of additional work, which would theoretically allow the host country to increase its growth Chojnicki and Ragot, (2012). This perception is only justified if immigrants are selected on the basis of their level of education, qualifications and professional experience.

To answer the problem posed in the introduction to our thesis, we will draw on existing literature, including the thesis work of researchers such as Camille Bechet, Nisima Moujoud, Anne Jolivet and Frédéric Piantoni, as well as certain scientific articles on the subject that we consider useful. These data enabled us to carry out an analysis of the working conditions of the immigrant and non-immigrant populations. We also drew up a report on the housing conditions of the population.

In terms of employment, immigrants who arrived before 2000 have had time to integrate and have been able to find a job with an open-ended contract. The longer they have lived in the region, the more likely they are to find work, which means that the length of time they have lived in the region has an impact on their integration.

For the unemployed, on the other hand, regardless of how long they have been in the area, the length of time they have been unemployed has no effect: the proportion of unemployed people remains constant. A precarious situation (unemployment, poverty or lack of income) encourages a category of the population to find financial resources by resorting to informal activities. The Brazilian and Surinamese immigrant populations are the most affected by this form of employment. In terms of housing conditions, three times as many immigrants live in makeshift accommodation. Immigrants also live less with their families than the non-immigrant population.

This empirical study consisted of analysing the data from our field survey sample in order to identify an affirmation or refutation of our hypotheses on the factors explaining immigration. The specification of this model was based on certain lessons learned from the empirical literature. Particular attention was paid so that the results of the estimations of this model could contribute to the affirmation of hypotheses on the reasons that encourage these people to immigrate to Guyana.

Remember that the Probit model is a type of econometric model with a binary choice. In other words, a choice between two options. It is characterised by the fact that it is based on a standard normal cumulative distribution. A standard normal cumulative distribution linked to a random variable is a function that signals the possibility of the said variable having a value less than or equal to a certain number, which functions as a threshold. First, we have an equation that explains the dependent variable Y as a function of one or more independent variables X.

According to the results obtained, the variables Income (salary), social status in French Guyana, family ties and Age have a significant overall effect on the probability of migration (an individual's willingness to migrate) to French Guyana. The statistics on the mean dependent variable indicate that the proportion of immigrants is 78 %. Mac Fadden's R2 is equal to 0.560000. This value indicates that 56 % of the fluctuations in the probability of immigration can be explained by the variables mentioned above.

At all times, during our fieldwork, we noted from the data that one in four immigrants arrives in French Guyana without a visa in order to apply for asylum. The strategy of these migrants was to apply for asylum at the border so that the border police would allow them to enter the country with an appearance pass that would take them to the prefecture for their asylum application procedure, even though they knew that their application had no chance of a favourable outcome. Most of those who obtain their first residence permit have already been in the country for more than 6 years on average.

Finally, our last problem consists of seeing if there is a link between unemployment and immigration in French Guyana. We began by defining unemployment and its various categories, as well as defining the labour market, followed by a diagnosis of the economy in French Guyana. We also looked at the housing conditions of the population. In terms of employment, we can see that immigrants who arrived before 2000 have had time to integrate and have been able to find a job with an open-ended contract. The longer they have lived in the area, the more likely they are to find work, which means that the length of time they have lived in the area has an impact on their integration.

For the unemployed, on the other hand, regardless of how long they have been in the area, the length of time they have been unemployed has no effect: the proportion of unemployed people remains constant. A precarious situation (unemployment, poverty or lack of income) encourages a category of the population to find financial resources by resorting to informal activities. The Brazilian and Surinamese immigrant populations are the most affected by this form of employment. In terms of housing conditions, three times as many immigrants live in makeshift accommodation. Immigrants also live less with their families than the non-immigrant population.

We have carried out a simple regression analysis, which consists of studying the dependence of a variable, known as the explained variable, on one or more other variables, known as the explanatory variables. Consider two variables Y and X. We distinguish linearity in the variables and parameters and the results of empirical analysis reveal that :

All the estimates and test results we have carried out show a significant link between unemployment and immigration. Immigration thus seems to have a link with unemployment, but this effect remains transitory insofar as capital is a cumulative factor of production. If we relax the fixed capital stock hypothesis and consider that the capital stock can be adjusted immediately, an increase in available labour, via immigration, only leads to a temporary fall in wages.

When the quantity of labour increases, the capital-labour ratio decreases and companies tend to increase capital, before the capital-labour ratio returns to its previous level. If capital endowment were highly price-sensitive, an increase in foreign labour would encourage capital inflows into the host country, ultimately restoring the capital-labour ratio that prevailed before the economic shock caused by immigration.

The lack of effective support for migrants will have negative effects on the economy of the host country. Informal activities may arise, which may create an imbalance in the labour market.

The contribution of this thesis was to propose :

• A review of the theoretical and, above all, empirical literature on the economic consequences of immigration in host countries,
• A study of the factors explaining immigration to French Guyana using the Probit, Logit model.
• An empirical study of the links between immigration and unemployment using simple regression analysis.
• Recommendations issued to promote better care for immigrants.

Given our approach and our results, certain limitations and prospects for future research can be formulated. The subject of immigration is very broad and, given the time constraints of this research, we have not been able to address all aspects of the immigrant population and to draw up an exhaustive profile of this population. Also, in this thesis, we have not been able to address the informal activities carried out by the immigrant population in order to survive their precarious situation. However, it would be good to consider a quantitative study of the economic contribution of people in an irregular situation for my post-doctorate.

In French Guiana, the diversity of the population is the result of successive waves of migratory arrivals. It is composed mainly of Amerindians, Creoles, Brown Blacks, Asians and Metropolitans in the early 1960s. It then diversified with the arrival of native immigrants from Brazil, Haiti, Guyana, Suriname or Saint Lucia. Until the 80s, the great waves of immigration to Guiana testify to the political instability in the surrounding countries: political unrest in Haiti, civil war in Suriname, social and economic problems in Guyana.

Today, this territory remains an island of wealth in the heart of South America and many immigrants come to settle there for economic or family reasons. In addition, we must not forget the permeability of the borders that have made Guyana a land of migrations: two border rivers, the forest to the south and the sea to the north. The number of immigrants in the Guyanese population was stable in 1990. Subsequently, between 1990 and 1999 a decrease took place.

According to INSEE in 2020, immigrants will represent 30% of the population of French Guiana. This is the highest regional reception rate ahead of Île-de-France (17.6%) and Alsace (10.3%). While the origin of the immigrant population has changed over time, its profile has also changed: there are now more women than men.

Apart from migratory events in this territory, precariousness also affects a good number of the population. It mainly concerns active people in precarious employment, whether immigrant or non-immigrant. According to the study report carried out jointly by the National Institute of Statistics of Economic Studies (INSEE) and the Directorate of the Environment and Housing Development in French Guiana (DEAL) in 2014 on housing, 15% to 20% of the Guyanese population does not currently have access to basic infrastructure (drinking water, electricity, telephone, housing etc.); 30% of Guyanese households in the coastal strip live in overcrowding compared to 9% in metropolitan France.

Immigration, too often forgotten, not only generates negative repercussions, is not completely detached from political will. History has taught us that Guiana was built in part by immigration, the driving force behind the development of this territory, whatever its origin, whether it is intended or forced. Today on Guyanese territory, a significant part of immigrants actively participate in the economic life and development of the territory. The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate from an economic, social and cultural point of view the most likely and objective vision of the impact of immigration in the Guyanese economy.

As a result, a number of questions have emerged and will guide the realization of this research work. Indeed, our initial question was to try to understand: If immigration promotes development, what are the explanatory factors of immigration to Guiana? And finally, is there a link between immigration and unemployment?

To answer the questions posed, this thesis will be structured around two main parts, the first part of which is entitled, migration and the context of development. In this part, we have two chapters, the first of which deals with the context of the regionalization of development and migration and the second, the theories and models of migration.

The second part, migration and imbalance, has two chapters, of which chapter 3 deals with the study of explanatory factors by a probit model, and the last chapter deals with the labour market, unemployment and employment in French Guiana. This thesis does not aim to index immigration but aims to highlight the different challenges of immigration from an economic, environmental, health, social and societal point of view, in order to make recommendations to improve the migration policies already in place.

The choice of the subject was born from a desire to establish a real observation on the real situation of this territory, and to qualify the words of those who could consider immigrants or immigration as a burden while forgetting that this population represents a significant proportion of the Guyanese population. They participate in an important part of the economy of this territory through their consumption and business creation.

The results of our research on a theoretical and empirical level

To answer our first problem, in the first part, we presented an overview of the migration situation in the world with a focus on the share of international migrants which is estimated at 272 million in 2019, or 3.5% of the world's population. These international migrants actively participate in the economic development of their host countries.

We too make a historical reminder of the periods of migratory wave in Europe, more precisely in France with the various policies adopted by the State, after the Second World War. In connection with the context of our subject, we presented the history of the settlement of French Guiana through French migration policy. These findings show that today, Guiana is characterized by a great diversity and constant mobility of border communities. Its population is composed of several groups, long a land of immigration, coexist today on the territory, Creoles, Businenges, Amerindians, Hmong, Africans, but also metropolitans and other communities of more recent immigration through the different waves of migration.

We have also addressed the notion of development in relation to immigration, knowing that development theories are based on principles that are indeed part of economic theory. We have named a few already; there is the constant circulation of trade which favours accumulation, which accumulation is a factor of production and growth.

These are all basic principles on which economic theories and development theories are based. Thus, for a long time, the principles of economics elaborated by the first theoreticians of classical economics, Adam Smith (1723-1790), David Ricardo (1772-1823) and Jean-Baptiste Say (1767-1832), served as the basis for theories of economic development and development, because at that time development would be equated with economic development.

Standard theory explains the existence of social cleavages concerning the determination of immigration policy by the transfer of income between national groups generated by the admission of immigrants. The arrival of foreigners with factors of production changes the relative factor endowment of the host economy and, consequently, the income that nationals derive from their participation in productive activity.

The Council of Europe's report on migration published in 2019 contradicts all conventional wisdom that migrants threaten employment and social security systems in the countries where they settle. The report states that migrants contribute decisively to the economic and cultural wealth of the countries that receive them.

For several years in France, the issue of immigration and integration were presented as major problems systematically put at the centre of public debate under the impetus of the extreme right without us having verified the social and cultural disasters announced. France as a whole is the oldest land of immigration, implying that immigration is not a problem and it is not a cost.

Economic and demographic studies show that a more ambitious immigration policy in terms of reception would have a positive impact on public finances. What should not be forgotten, immigrants participate in the creation of the wealth of host countries. Their contribution to development is determined by many factors, including the nature of migration, where it is destined and how successful or unsuccessful countries are in taking advantage of the phenomenon and addressing its negative effects.

We can affirm according to the observations that immigration promotes development provided that it is well supervised and accompanied, it generates benefits for both the host countries and the countries of origin. An example of successful immigration is the case of the Hmong of Guyana who today through their agriculture contributes to the development of this territory. We then wrote a review of the literature on the different theories of migration, according to the vision of the classics and neoclassicals.

The classical school developed its theory on the assumption of a status quo proportional to the factors of production, be it labor or capital. However, the question of migration is incorporated into classical theory in that Smith shallots that "man is of all baggage, the most difficult to move" and Mill shows that immigration can raise the standard of living of part of the population of the host country.

While neoclassicists claim that the theoretical model of the migratory will was discovered in the economists Adam Smith (1776) and Friedrich Ratzel (1882), there are also the "laws" of the geographer Ernst Georg Ravenstein (1885) which are often seen as the first explicit attempt to theorize the causes of migration on the basis of the observation of internal migration. He established a theory of human migration in the 1880s that still forms the basis of modern migration theory.

These economic theories of migration demonstrate the impact that impact brings These elements of answers that we mention refer us to the second problem on the factors of immigration in French Guiana. The arrival of a population on a territory brings a potential source of additional work, which would theoretically allow the host country to increase its growth Chojnicki and Ragot, (2012). This perception is justified only if immigrants are selected on the basis of their level of education, qualifications, and professional experience.

To answer the problem posed in the introduction of our thesis, we will draw inspiration from the existing literature, including the thesis work of researchers such as Camille Bechet, Nisima Moujoud, Anne Jolivet, Frédéric Piantoni as well as some scientific articles on the subject that we deem useful. These data allowed us to make an analysis of the working conditions of the immigrant and non-immigrant population.

We also made an observation on the housing conditions of the population. In terms of employment, immigrants who arrived before 2000 had time to integrate and were able to find a job with a contract of indefinite duration. The older they are in the territory, the more they are professionally integrated, which means that the duration of residence on the territory plays on integration.

On the other hand, for the unemployed, regardless of their length of service in the territory, the duration does not play a role: the share of the unemployed remains constant. The precarious situation (unemployment, poverty, or lack of income) encourages a category of the population to find financial resources through informal activities. The Brazilian and Surinamese immigrant populations are the most affected by this form of employment. In terms of housing conditions, immigrants are three times more likely to live in a makeshift dwelling. On the other hand, immigrants live less in families than the non-immigrant population.

This empirical study consists of analyzing data from our field survey sample to identify a claim or rebuttal of our assumptions about the explanatory factors of immigration. The specification of this model was based on some lessons learned from the empirical literature. Particular attention has been paid so that the results of the estimates in this model can contribute to the assertion of hypotheses about the reasons that encourage these people to immigrate to Guyana. Recall that the Probit model is a type of econometric model with binary choice.

That is, a choice between two options. It is characterized by the fact that it is based on a standard normal cumulative distribution. A standard normal cumulative distribution related to a random variable is a function that signals the possibility that said variable has a value less than or equal to a certain number, which functions as a threshold. First, we have an equation that explains the dependent variable Y, based on one or more independent variables X.

The results obtained, the variables Income (salary), social status of French Guiana, family link and Age have a significant overall effect on the probability of migration (an individual's willingness to migrate) in French Guiana. Statistics on the dependent variable meannt (mean of the dependent variable) indicate that the proportion of immigrants is 78%. Mac Fadden's R2 is equal to 0.560000. This value indicates that 56% of fluctuations in the probability of immigration are explained by the variables mentioned above.

However, during our field surveys, we found through the results of the data that one in four immigrants arrives in Guyana without a visa in order to apply for asylum. The strategy of these migrants was to apply for asylum at the border so that the border police would promote their entry into the territory with a pass to appear that brings them to the prefecture for their asylum procedure, even if they know that their application has no chance of obtaining a favourable result.

Most of those who obtain a first residence permit have already resided in the territory for more than 6 years on average. Finally, our last problem is to see if there is a link between unemployment and immigration in French Guiana. We first defined unemployment, its different categories, we also define the labor market followed by a diagnosis of the economy in French Guiana.

We also made an observation on the housing conditions of the population. In terms of employment, immigrants who arrived before 2000 had time to integrate and were able to find a job with a contract of indefinite duration. The older they are in the territory, the more they are professionally integrated, which means that the duration of residence on the territory plays on integration.

On the other hand, for the unemployed, regardless of their length of service in the territory, the duration does not play a role: the share of the unemployed remains constant. The precarious situation (unemployment, poverty or lack of income) encourages a category of the population to find financial resources through informal activities. The Brazilian and Surinamese immigrant populations are the most affected by this form of employment. In terms of housing conditions, immigrants are three times more likely to live in a makeshift dwelling.

On the other hand, immigrants live less in families than the non-immigrant population. We did the simple regression analysis which consists in studying the dependence of a variable called variable explained to one or more other variables called explanatory variables. Consider two variables Y and X. A distinction is made between linearity in variables and parameters and the results of empirical analysis reveals that: All the estimates and results of the tests we have carried out show significantly the link between unemployment and immigration.

Immigration therefore seems to have a link with unemployment, but this effect remains transitory to the extent that capital is a cumulative factor of production. If we relax the fixed capital stock hypothesis and consider that the capital stock can be immediately adjusted, an increase in the available labour force, via immigration, only leads to a temporary fall in wages.

When the amount of labor increases, the capital-labor ratio decreases and firms tend to increase capital, before the capital-labor ratio returns to its previous level. If capital endowment were highly price-sensitive, an increase in foreign labour would encourage capital inflows into the host country, which would ultimately restore the capital-to-labour ratio that prevailed before the economic shock caused by immigration.

The lack of effective support for migrants will have negative effects of immigration on the economy of the host country. Informal activities can occur, which can create an imbalance in the labour market.

The contribution of this thesis was to propose:

• A review of theoretical and especially empirical literature on the economic consequences of immigration in host countries,
• A study on the explanatory factors of immigration to French Guiana by the Probit model, Logit.
• An empirical study on the links between immigration and unemployment based on a simple regression analysis.
• Recommendations made to promote better care for immigrants.

Given our approach and results, some limitations and perspectives for future research can be formulated. The topic of immigration is very broad and given the time of this research work, we have not been able to address all aspects of the immigrant population and draw up an exhaustive profile of this population. Also in this thesis, we have not been able to address the informal activities that the immigrant population does to survive in the face of their precarious situation. However, it would be good to consider a quantitative study on the economic contribution of people.